Panagariya in Times of India: Floor hasn’t fallen through

Tue, 2017-09-26

As published in the September 25, 2017 version of the Times of India

Floor hasn’t fallen through: Don’t go by ‘feel’, economic data call for measured rather than precipitate action 

Reviewing the fascinating book Progress by Swedish economic historian Johan Norberg, the Economist recently wrote, “People are predisposed to think that things are worse than they are, and they overestimate the likelihood of calamity. This is because they rely not on data, but on how easy it is to recall an example. And bad things are more memorable.” 

These words aptly summarise the nature of the recent debate on growth in India. During 2014-15 to 2016-17, the real gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices grew 7.5% on average. This growth came on the heels of below-6% average growth during the last two years under the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government. 

However, when the Central Statistics Office (CSO) first released its estimate of robust 7.4% growth in 2014-15, most commentators including many of our leading economists rejected it arguing that it did not match their own assessment of reality on the ground. The common refrain was that the economy did not “feel” like it was growing at such a high rate.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE FULL ARTICLE IN THE TIMES OF INDIA

Latest news posts

By Sharon Kahn (Courtesy of the India Business Initiative at Jerome A. Chazen Institute for Global Business at the Columbia Business School) Timothy Roemer, former US Ambassador to India, posed a question during a recent presentation at...
Who: Ambassador Tim Roemer, former US Member of Congress, 9/11 Commissioner, and Ambassador to India, is the Executive Director and Strategic Counselor at APCO Worldwide.  During his time in office, Ambassador Roemer helped move India from...
The challenge to the open trading system has reached a new height following the election of President Donald Trump in the United States.  Under him, trade tensions have turned into a trade war of sorts, which threatens to bring down the entire...